Causes of the Syrian conflict
At the heart of the Syrian conflict is the problem of the ethno-religious diversity of the country's population and the distribution of power taking into account ethno-religious origin. When Hafez al-Assad came to power in a military coup in 1970, he was well aware that he needed to take into account the experience of previous non-Muslim leaders. Doubly necessary - since Assad was a member of the Alawite community, which, as I already said, is not considered Muslim in the Islamic world outside of present-day Syria and which has always been viewed extremely negatively both in the Sunni and Shiite communities. And in particular, we must try not to repeat the experience of Amin Hafez, who ruled the country from 1963 to 1966 - he, being half Christian (Armenian), half Alawite, pursued a policy without taking into account the interests of the Muslim majority of Syria, for which he was overthrown.
Taking this into account, Hafez Assad, proceeding, among other things, from the Syrian constitution, which stipulates that only a Muslim can be the president of the country, took a number of measures aimed at recognizing the Alawites as Muslims. His efforts were crowned with success, and, let me remind you, in 1973, Grand Ayatollah Hakimi declared that the Alawites are Shiite Muslims. A similar fatwa was put forward a few years later by the leader of the Islamic revolution in Iran, Imam Khomeini, and thus Hafez Assad, as it were, legalized the presence of an Alawite in the main post of the state. The genius of Hafez Assad lay in the fact that he not only convinced representatives of the highest Shiite - Jafarite - Islam to recognize the Alawites as Shiite Muslims, but also managed to convince the Alawite sheikhs to recognize themselves as Muslims with threats and sometimes with promises. In his opinion, it was impossible to govern a Muslim country otherwise.
At the same time, well understanding what the majority of the Syrian population – Sunni Muslims – needed, he provided them with appropriate opportunities in politics and economics: for example, he demonstratively appointed a Sunni Muslim, his comrade-in-arms Mustafa Tlas, as the Minister of Defense of Syria.
Created for Sunni Muslims favorable conditions in trade, crafts, and other activities. Christians, who, according to the Syrian authorities, make up 10% of the population, and according to other sources - at least 15-20%, were also given great opportunities in the practice of their religious rites, in education, in trade, etc. However, the National Service security, counterintelligence of the Air Force were formed mainly from Alawites. The most combat-ready and high-tech units of the army were also recruited from Alawites, and as a result, Alawites began to make up the overwhelming majority in the repressive element of the security apparatus. I think there is no point in doubting that they could at any moment change the situation in the country in accordance with the wishes of the Alawite president.
It must be recognized that such a situation initially did not suit a significant part of Syrian Sunni Muslims, especially their radical wing represented by the religious-political association “Muslim Brotherhood”. The latter have repeatedly tried, through terrorist attacks and armed uprisings, to overthrow the regime of Hafez Assad, in other words, the Alawite regime. Thus, in the late 1970s and 1980s, a wave of terrorist attacks against Alawites swept across Syria; in addition, several dozen Soviet military specialists who were in Syria became victims of terrorist attacks. In this regard, in 1982, during an attempt at an armed rebellion in the city of Homs, an operation was carried out to destroy the militant groups of the Muslim Brotherhood, during which, unfortunately, the civilian population also suffered. According to various sources, from 15 to 30 thousand people died, including women, children and the elderly. A significant part fled to neighboring Jordan. Until the outbreak of unrest in Syria, arrests of Muslim Brotherhood activists continued.
Subsequently, laws were passed in Syria that automatically made membership in the Muslim Brotherhood punishable by death, although a significant portion of its members were still imprisoned. It is important to understand that among a certain part of the Sunni population, the Muslim Brotherhood organization was popular. And after the death of Hafez al-Assad and the rise to power of his son Bashar al-Assad, many in Syria began to have illusions of modernizing society and creating a more liberal system of governance, less rigid and controlling.
Let us also note that many aspects of power in Syria, not only foreign policy, but also domestic policy, were and are seriously influenced by Iran. The Iranian leadership has adopted an instrument of influence on a number of states in the region with a predominance of the Shiite population. Essentially this is the same thing that was used in late medieval Iran - Persia. Thus, along with Iraq, where Shiites make up the majority of the population, Syria also fell into the sphere of influence of Iran - despite the fact that Alawites in this country make up, according to various estimates, from 10 to 20% of the population, and Jafarite Shiites - less than 4% population.
All this coincided with the intensification of the domestic and foreign policy activities of the Hezbollah movement in Lebanon. Thus, a kind of axis arose: Iran - Iraq - the Shiite (Alawite) leadership of Syria - Hezbollah. In addition, Iran has used and is using the Shia population in Bahrain, in the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia, as well as the Zaydi Shia in Yemen. Let's add to this Iran's work on its own nuclear program and its attempt to become a regional superpower as opposed to the United States, Israel and the Sunni states of the Persian Gulf. It is clear that the totality of the efforts of all these multidirectional political movements could not but lead to the destabilization of Syria - in fact, it was only a matter of time.
Now on the side of Assad is the absolute majority of the Alawite community, the Ismailis, part of the Druze, Christians, part of the Sunnis and Shia Jafaris, which makes up 40-50% of the country's population, and a significant part of Sunni Muslims is on the side of the opposition. The Turkish factor played a major role in rallying Christians, Druze and Ismailis around Assad. In general, Turkey has an extremely negative attitude towards Syria, especially for Alawites, Ismailis, Druze and especially Christians. Let us remember that both in the 19th century and at the beginning of the 20th century the government Ottoman Empire organized pogroms in Syria that turned into genocide of Alawites and Christians.
Thus, the Alawite community in the 60s of the 19th century, in fact, stood on the verge of complete physical destruction by the Turks. Genocide of the Christian population was carried out: mass pogroms and massacres of the Maronites in 1912, massacres Armenians and representatives of other Christian peoples in 1909 and 1915. All this could not but affect the mindset, in particular, of the Christian and Alawite population, which prompted them to rally around Hafez Assad.
At a certain stage, a similar position was taken by the Kurds, known for their anti-Turkish sentiments. During the unfolding of the current internal Syrian conflict, the central leadership managed to effectively use this factor, especially in strategic issues, such as the diversion of part of the forces from the defense of Raqqa, the use of Kurds in the Aleppo direction, as well as the interaction of Kurdish paramilitary organizations with Christian and Alawite paramilitary organizations in the battles for Aleppo .
Here it is very important for us to understand the mechanism of action of the Alawite community. The Alawite system of government in Syria, where they form a minority of the population, is somewhat reminiscent of the medieval Ismaili Fatimid caliphate. Hafez Assad managed to create a system of control by the Alawite community over the main economic, military, and social processes in the country. Approximately the same thing happened in the Ismaili Caliphate. It must be taken into account that the Alawites, as well as representatives of extreme Shiites in general (which include Ismailis, Alawites, Alevis, Druze and Ali-Ilahs), in fact, managed to come to power for the first time after the fall of the Fatimid Caliphate in 1171. Moreover, in the genetic memory of the Alawites, memories of those difficult times that befell all extreme Shiites after the fall of the Fatimid Caliphate still live and will live. In general, we can say that the Alawite community in Syria has all the prerequisites to effectively accumulate its strength and capabilities to repel terrorist groups, which is what we are seeing now.
The Ismaili community of Syria, numbering about 500 thousand people, is also very close to the Alawites. It is important that the father of the world leader of the Ismailis, Aga Khan IV, is buried in Syria, and the grandfather of Aga Khan IV, Aga Khan III, who was at one time president of the League of Nations, is buried in Egypt, the homeland of the Fatimid Caliphate. Deep ethnic historical roots in the Middle East have always played a huge role.
The so-called old guard has great influence on Assad, among whom, with rare exceptions, the absolute majority are Alawites. The most influential of them are: former boss Air Force counterintelligence Mohammed Al-Kholi; former Chief of the General Staff of the Syrian Armed Forces, now Minister of Defense Fahad Jassem al-Frej; former adviser to Bashar al-Assad, now director of the General Directorate of Security, Ali Mamluk; former Chief of Staff of the Air Force Counterintelligence Chief Haysam Said; the only Sunni among them is former Syrian Defense Minister General Mustafa Tlass. All of these people once worked with Hafez al-Assad and now have great influence on President Bashar al-Assad.
Naturally, the immediate family of Bashar al-Assad and, first of all, his mother Anisa Makhlouf, who comes from a noble Alawite family, plays a big role. It is also important to take into account the fact that the Assad family itself does not come from the elite of the Alawite community of the so-called initiates, “hassa,” which includes people initiated into certain sacraments of the Alawite community, which are passed on from generation to generation. The Assad family comes from Alawite commoners, “amma”, so Assad is forced to reckon with the responsibility of his family, including to the highest Alawite caste “Hassa”.
At the same time, it is necessary to take into account the enormous role of the influence of the Alawite community of Syria on their essentially coreligionists in Turkey, the Alevis, where, according to various sources, there are from 15 to 20 million people. The vast majority of those involved in the riots in Turkey are Alevis. At the same time, in the Turkish border strip in Syria, on the territory of historical Cilicia, live Alevis, who are descendants of Syrians, Armenians and Greeks, who are sympathetic to the Alawite community of Syria and hate the Erdogan regime. Also in the same strip, the Kurdish community lives compactly, which also has anti-Turkish sentiments.
When they say that the authors of the Syrian civil war are the United States, Saudi Arabia is, to put it mildly, not true. I would give the main role here to Turkey, and first of all specifically to Mr. Recep Tayyip Erdogan. In this regard, I would like to remind you that Mr. Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party is the party of the Muslim Brotherhood. And that the idea that the regime of Bashar al-Assad can be dealt with very quickly, in general, belongs to Erdogan. It was he who convinced Barack Obama and other figures in the West that the Assad regime could not survive because Alawites, whom Erdogan calls sectarians, are in power, and the majority of the country’s population are Sunni Muslims. Erdogan believed that this majority would support the Muslim Brotherhood, and therefore the ruling regime in Syria would only need to be pushed, and it would collapse. So initially, in general, all of his political and military activities began with support for the Muslim Brotherhood. The result was the emergence of a number of terrorist and jihadist organizations of an extremely radical nature.
That is, I repeat, Türkiye played an extremely negative role in the Syrian events. At the same time, its actions were based on the so-called doctrine of neo-Ottomanism put forward by Recep Erdogan. The essence of this doctrine is the desire to once again extend Turkey’s influence to all territories that were once part of the Ottoman Empire and most of which, by the way, were once conquered from Turkey by the Russian Empire. And in this regard, it would be very interesting for the Turks to bring their creation in the person of the Muslim Brotherhood to Damascus. As we know, at this time the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas had almost come to power in Egypt, so a powerful arc could have been created under the leadership of the Muslim Brotherhood.
Another reason for such active intervention in Syria is that Turkey would very much like to control a large gas field that it has recently discovered off the coast of Israel, Cyprus, Lebanon and Syria and which it also claims. And for this, control over Syria was simply necessary for her.
Of course, Saudi Arabia and Qatar also played a role - especially Qatar. The Qataris have long wanted to use Syrian territory to transfer gas to Turkey, and then transport this gas to Europe. The fact is that Qatar supplies liquefied gas to the market, ranking first in the world in its supplies. But the price of liquefied gas is, for obvious reasons, high, and if it is possible to lay a pipeline, the price of Qatari gas will fall significantly, and its share in the hydrocarbon market will increase.
I have been to Syria many times, and I am used to observing the completely peaceful coexistence of all ethnic and religious groups. Everyone studied in the same schools. Churches and mosques were open. Everything was peaceful. But an impetus was given from outside for the disintegration of Syria, and this led to terrible consequences - a neighbor began to kill his neighbor for the simple reason that he belongs to a different religious group. All this is familiar to us from the history of the Ottoman Empire. As a matter of fact, this is exactly what the Turks managed to do again.
The difficulty is that it is impossible to seat representatives of the Syrian leadership and the opposition at the same table and come to an agreement. It is clear that the agreements should be based on a redistribution of power on an ethno-religious basis. However, unlike Lebanon, where power was initially distributed on an ethno-religious basis, initially in accordance with oral agreements, and after the end of the civil war - in writing, on the basis of the Taif Agreements, in Syria there was no understanding of the problem for many years - in fact, in recent years For decades the problem was completely ignored. One could take the Taif Agreements as a model, but in order to begin preparing such documents, it is necessary to clearly understand how many representatives of which ethno-religious group live in Syria - since there are official data from the Syrian government, and there are data from religious and religious groups that differ markedly from them. secular leaders of ethno-religious groups.
Damascus before the war
Damascus today
In addition, it is completely impossible to apply, for example, the principle of free elections in Syria, since in this case both the president of the country and the representative of the majority of parliament in the country will be elected Sunnis, which, taking into account the interfaith relations of recent decades, especially aggravated during the civil war, could result in into serious excesses on an ethno-religious basis. This is especially true of the current situation - holding elections in a country where there are 4 million external refugees alone and almost 8-9 million internally displaced refugees, where a significant part of the territory is under the control of a variety of forces, including Islamist ones, and in which God knows what's going on is pointless. We must first agree on a formula according to which Syria will exist. Therefore, when distributing power, if we take the Taif Agreement as a basis, it is necessary to make adjustments to reflect local specifics. For example, the president of the country may remain a representative of the Alawite community, the same Bashar Assad, the prime minister may be a Sunni Muslim, the chairman of parliament may be a Christian, a representative of the Antiochian Orthodox Church of the Chalcedonian rite.
But it is necessary to understand two the most important moments. With a partial redistribution of power from the president to the prime minister and the chairman of parliament, parties will have to be created, which, as in Lebanon, will be based on the ethno-religious factor, which in itself is fraught with conflicts in the future. In addition, the possibility of influence of one or another community on the power structure of the state will remain very serious. Today, as I have already said, the most serious security forces in the system of Syrian government are controlled by the Alawites. Replacing some Alawites with representatives of other ethno-religious groups is probably the most difficult issue.
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1. Introduction
The Syrian conflict, or as some observers argue, the “Syrian war,” appears before us as a complete set of all kinds of conflicts: social, religious, domestic and foreign policy. The conflict situation is complemented by the difficult economic situation in the country, high level population differentiation and, of course, the past experience of the Arab Spring.
Against a rather bleak background, an armed conflict is unfolding, as they say, in the best traditions of the Cold War. As before, the Syrian conflict illustrates the drawing of the geopolitical map. On the one hand, Syria is a faithful and, probably, the only ally in the near future. On the other hand, there is a dictatorial regime that needs immediate overthrow to form a “supporting platform” for future campaigns.
The complexity of the conflict under consideration also lies in the absence of any compromise solution for both sides, which is perhaps the only thing that all observers analyzing the conflict agree on. How legitimate is the intervention of foreign players in the internal political events of a state and how can one evaluate the use of foreign weapons against their own citizens? How to bring the parties to the negotiating table? Authorized representatives of the League of Arab States and the United Nations were never able to answer these questions.
In this work, an attempt was made to analyze and present all possible points of view regarding the Syrian conflict, as well as to identify the main trends for understanding its further development.
2. Definition and course of the conflict
Civil War in Syria - massive anti-government unrest and riots in different cities of Syria, directed against the country's President Bashar al-Assad, as well as to end the almost fifty-year rule of the Baath Party, which in the fall of 2011 escalated into open armed confrontation. The so-called Syrian conflict is part of the broader Arab Spring, a wave of social upheaval across the Arab world.
Among the subjects of the conflict, domestic political ones can be distinguished: on the one hand, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad; Syrian Armed Forces; PASV (Arab Sociological Renaissance Party), on the other side: Syrian National Council; Free Syrian Army. And also foreign policy: North Korea, Iran, Russia, Venezuela; on the other side: USA, UK, France, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Libya.
Government forces consist of the army and numerous intelligence services, they are also supported by the Hezbollah movement and the so-called. “Shabiha” - paramilitary formations of “assistants”, formed from semi-criminal elements (Greenfinch New Syria). The rebels' governing body is the Syrian National Council; The largest militant organization fighting against the government is the Free Syrian Army. In addition, there are reports that militants from al-Qaeda and other terrorist organizations, as well as foreign mercenaries, are fighting on the side of the rebels.
In January 2011, major unrest occurred in many countries in North Africa and the Middle East, as a result of which, in particular, the President of Tunisia and the President of Egypt resigned, and in Libya, the conflict between rebels and forces loyal to Muammar Gaddafi led to military intervention by the UN. In the wake of the events of the Arab Spring in Syria, rallies began demanding the end of the state of emergency and political reforms.
Already in March, the unrest escalated into clashes with the police. Bashar al-Assad dismissed the governor of Daraa province. Soon, the provision in the Syrian constitution, which declared the PASV or “Baath” party “leading and directing in society and government”, was canceled, and the resignation of the Syrian government was also accepted by the president of the country. Later, the state of emergency in Syria, which had been in force in the country since 1962, was lifted. However, despite these concessions by the Syrian leadership, the intensity of events continued to grow, including an increase in the number of casualties.
In May 2011 As one of the first attempts to resolve the conflict, the United States and the EU impose sanctions on Syria (banning arms exports, freezing accounts, depriving Syrian government officials of the right to enter). August 2011 marked by internal changes in the political system of Syria - Bashar al-Assad signed a decree introducing a multi-party system.
In September, an attempt was made to resolve the conflict - a draft resolution was introduced at the UN Security Council (USA, UK, France, Portugal). Russia and China vetoed. The reason was determined to be the absence of a clause in the resolution excluding an armed invasion of Syria.
In November, it was decided to suspend Syria's membership in the League of Arab States, and economic sanctions were also imposed against the country.
December 2011 - a new attempt to resolve the conflict - Syria agreed to cooperate with the Arab League, which proposed a peace plan (withdrawal of government troops from cities and release of political prisoners). Observers were allowed into the country, but soon, due to the increase in violence, the Arab League curtailed the observer mission.
In February 2012, another attempt was made to resolve the conflict, but Russia and China again vetoed a new draft UN Security Council resolution on Syria proposed by Morocco. Reason: “unilateral conclusions about the exclusive responsibility of the Syrian government for the escalation of violence in the country.”
Bashar al-Assad approved the draft constitution, according to which the country abandoned the previously legislatively enshrined leading role of the Baath Party. A referendum was held in which the document was supported by 89% of voters.
March 2012 - the EU summit recognized the Syrian National Council as the “legitimate representative of the Syrians”;
In May, early parliamentary elections were held, in which several parties took part for the first time, as a result of which 73% of parliamentary mandates were received by supporters of Bashar al-Assad. The opposition boycotted both the referendum and the parliamentary elections.
On July 16, FSA representatives announced that at 20:00 local time a massive offensive would begin against regular troops and armed groups (including Hezbollah and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards) supporting the government. The rebels call the attack on Damascus Operation Damascus Volcano.
The operation led to the assassination of Syrian Defense Minister Daoud Rajih in a suicide attack on a local security compound in Damascus. Several other ministers were injured. Hillary Clinton called on the international community to put pressure on Russia on the issue of signing the resolution proposed by Western countries on Syria. The US Secretary of State believes that Russia should sign a document that provides for tough sanctions against President Bashar al-Assad. Moscow promises to block the project. The Russian draft does not mention sanctions, while Moscow proposes to extend the mandate of the UN observer mission in Syria, which expires on July 20, by three months. China also expressed dissatisfaction with Clinton's project. The tense situation led to a unanimous decision by the UN Security Council to extend the UN observer mission in Syria for 30 days. Following military clashes in Damascus, the League of Arab States (LAS) called on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to leave his post “to save the country” and the opposition and the Free Syrian Army to begin forming a transitional government of national unity.
The next stage of the confrontation can be identified as the battle for Aleppo. The rebels announced the start of a campaign to capture the country's second largest city, its business center, Aleppo. Armed opposition groups fought with government troops on the outskirts of this city. In the northern direction, they managed to break into the city limits and began to storm the local headquarters of the state security agencies. On July 24, the official representative of the Syrian National Council, George Sabra, said that the opposition was ready to agree to a temporary transfer of power in the country to one of President Bashar al-Assad's associates. On July 26, the Rebel Free Syrian Army said it had seized control of half of the city of Aleppo. On July 28, the Syrian army launched a counter-offensive on Aleppo.
On August 2, Kofi Annan resigned from his post as special envoy of the UN and the League of Arab States (LAS) for Syria due to the ineffectiveness of his proposed peace plan to resolve the Syrian crisis.
In December 2011, a new reason for the clash arose - the militants announced that they would soon begin production of chemical weapons - nerve gas.
On January 6, 2013, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad addressed the Syrian people on national television and called on them to unite against militants (oppositionists) financed by the West. He also proposed holding new elections in the country, forming a coalition government based on the voting results, declaring a general amnesty, etc.
On January 30, the head of the National Coalition of Opposition and Revolutionary Forces of Syria, Sheikh Ahmed Muaz al-Khatib, expressed his readiness to hold direct negotiations on the settlement of the armed conflict with representatives of President Bashar al-Assad.
On February 12, the number of victims in the war in Syria (according to the UN) exceeded 70,000 people. On March 25, the UN reduces its presence in Syria for security reasons. On April 8, a group of UN experts investigating the use of chemical weapons was denied the opportunity to work in Syria.
On April 25, US Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel said that the Syrian authorities probably used chemical weapons. According to him, American intelligence came to such conclusions.
If we move away from the chronology of the conflict and turn to analytics, we can distinguish three stages of the process, but the expert described these stages only at the end of 2012.
The first stage is early-mid 2011. During this period, foreign “missionaries” with considerable financial resources were sent to Syria, organizing protest demonstrations, inciting clashes with the police, raids on government agencies and police stations. During the demonstrations, they also organized provocations, the purpose of which was to shed blood - and it was during this period that the number of victims among police officers was many times greater than the number of deaths of demonstrators and civilians.
The second stage began when the “missionaries” became “recruiters”, starting recruiting work among marginalized groups of the population. It is worth noting that the economic situation in Syria in the period 2008-2010 was extremely difficult - a severe three-year drought led to mass migration from the north of the country, hundreds of thousands of Palestinian refugees living in Syria and about half a million Sunni refugees from Iraq represented up to still provide extremely fertile ground for this kind of recruitment. The second stage of the conflict led to the fact that the number of people opposing the authorities, ready and capable of destroying the state, robberies, violence, murders, increased sharply - literally by an order of magnitude - within six months.
Finally, the third stage of the process began towards the end of 2011. There was a sharp shift in the situation - recruited robbers, rapists, criminals began to flock into groups and factions, into which experienced leaders immediately began to be introduced - both from among foreigners and from among local criminal authorities. The structuring of underground gangs took place, the supply of weapons and their seizure in the country began. At the same time, the creation of training camps began in Lebanon and Turkey, into which citizens of Islamic countries began to arrive, recruited to fight the bloody regime.
3. Causes of the Syrian conflict
Having understood the course of events, it is necessary to clarify the causes of the conflict, as well as consider the interests and participation of both internal and external actors in it. According to the report of a UN expert, the causes of the Syrian conflict are divided into domestic and foreign economic. The expert points to the absence of internal economic reasons, since “... as of the end of 2010, the main national macroeconomic indicators looked quite good against the background of the world average... Syria, although experiencing serious difficulties economically, is nevertheless developing at a pace that holds it is prevented from falling into stagnation and is protected from crisis situations on a national scale.”
As for foreign economic ones, among them were the construction of gas processing plants and a network of oil and gas pipelines connecting Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Iran, Iraq, and Azerbaijan. The participation of American and Western European companies was not envisaged in such ambitious projects. Preference was given to a Russian company. Thus, the role of Iran, Syria, Turkey and Russia increased in this region.
Also among the reasons, the UN expert identifies religious contradictions: the conflict between Sunnis and Allawites.
However, other researchers of the Syrian problem have a completely different opinion about the causes of the conflict. Mainly attention is paid to two reasons: socio-economic and religious, and it is in their intertwining that the foundations of the Syrian crisis are laid. The first means a low standard of living and economic situation in the country, despite the positive indicators of UN representatives.
As for the religious reason, the situation here is much more complicated. The conflict between Alawites and Sunnis, or, more broadly, between Shiites and Sunnis, or, even more broadly, between Christians and Muslims, is reduced to nothing.
Confrontation is built on a different level. Since the time of French influence and the country's further socialist course, part of society has significantly moved away from Islam and retains only a formal connection with religion. As a rule, these are representatives ruling circles and the middle class, the state apparatus, the intelligentsia, people who received a European education, communists, atheists, pro-Western liberals, etc. They are joined by religious minorities - Christians, Druze and Alawites, among whom religion generally does not play a global role. The entire population may have different attitudes towards the policies of the Baath Party, but they are united in one thing - the secular nature of the Syrian state should in no case be changed. If at the beginning of the Syrian events some liberals were in opposition, at the moment they support the current government, which was helped by the events in Libya, Egypt, Tunisia, as well as in Syria itself. The hastily knocked down opposition Syrian National Council (SNC), which declares its commitment to the ideas of democracy and liberalism, does not influence events within the country and has virtually no control over the Free Syrian Army (FSA). The SNA itself consists of emigrants and political refugees who have long ago lost any real connection with their homeland and enjoys virtually no popularity among Syrians.
As a rule, secular-minded Syrians live mainly in large cities, most of all, naturally, in Damascus, Aleppo, Latakia, where the standard of living and education is much higher. It is here that the FSA has almost no social base, unlike smaller towns and rural areas where uprisings most often occur. It is precisely on the periphery that dissatisfaction with the economic situation, fueled by religious slogans, is at its highest level. As for the Gulf countries, they only took advantage of this socio-religious differentiation in Syrian society and financed the further radicalization of these segments of the population in order to achieve their own interests. These interests are not at all related to the restoration of the Islamic caliphate, but are more prosaic - for example, establishing oil and gas supplies to Europe through the territory of Syria.
Another view on the problem belongs to Yu. Shcheglovin, who assesses the development of actions in Syria from the point of view of religious confrontation. He notes: “The typical picture is that within a city or town the center of resistance is usually concentrated in the Sunni neighborhoods, while the Alawite or Christian neighborhoods remain calm. In Homs, too, armed resistance is concentrated in eight Sunni neighborhoods, while two Alawite neighborhoods are virtually untouched by the war.”
He also notices the special situation of the Alawite community, which is also beginning to oppose the center. Previously loyal to Bashar al-Assad, “Alawite” Latakia also “marked” itself with a number of protest performances. In particular, Alawite demonstrations against central authorities were recorded in the suburbs of Latakia Moshkita, Demsarho, Beskazi. They were few in number, but what is important is that Alawites took part in them. This may indirectly indicate the beginning of stratification within this community. However, the actions of the Alawite community are determined by fears regarding the prospects for their physical survival if Assad leaves. And here his figure is considered precisely in the context of the guarantor of this security, no matter what personal sympathy or antipathy for him certain representatives of the Alawite community may experience. According to Shcheglovin, the same explains the loyalty of the bulk of Christians, Armenians, Circassians and Kurds to the regime. In the latter case, there is a clear line of behavior towards maintaining neutrality, which is also supported by the leadership of the Iraqi Kurds in the person of Masoud Barzani.
4. Interests of other states
The interests of the outside world in the Syrian conflict are also contradictory. In general, two points of view can be distinguished - pro-Western liberal-democratic and anti-Western, on the basis of which various forces, from nationalists to communists, perfectly converge.
The position of the liberal forces generally coincides with the position of Western countries and boils down to the fact that the Syrian people, oppressed by a tyrant, are fighting for freedom and democracy against a totalitarian regime. This view a priori presupposes condemnation of any actions on the part of the authorities, even those aimed at stabilizing the situation in Syria, and the suppression of armed semi-bandit formations becomes a “fight against one’s own people.”
Such a point of view can be easily criticized, because the concept of democracy is alien to the countries of the Middle East and any European or Western ideology will collide with the established principles of Sharia. Even if truly democratic elections are held under external pressure, these elections become the last democratic ones, either Islamists or the military come to power and will certainly establish the same authoritarian system.
The anti-Western position often turns into a conspiracy theory, according to which the United States seeks to establish control over yet another country, in addition to eliminating Iran’s only ally in the region before a future war with it. Its main goal is also considered to be ousting Russia from the Middle East. This position can also be challenged, since Syria is not interesting for the United States from either a strategic or economic point of view.
Other representatives of this theory believe that the political and military actions of the opposition in Syria occur primarily on the initiative and with the financial and military support of Saudi Arabia and Qatar, while the United States only lobbies their political interests in the international arena. This is undoubtedly true, as well as the fact that Russia supports the Syrian government on all the same points due to its interests. Turkey, Israel and Iran have their own interests here.
It should be noted that without internal support in Syria itself, any initiative by external forces would be doomed to failure. The Syrian opposition should not be perceived only as bandits, just as government troops should not be perceived as peacekeepers.
It’s no secret that the strength of the Syrian opposition lies in its varied forms of external support. The “revolution” would have been doomed to failure without a constant influx of foreign aid to the opposition (money, weapons, ammunition) and external intervention ( constant influx“revolutionaries” from abroad - mainly from Arab countries). Of particular importance is the strong political support of the USA, Great Britain, France, GCC countries, and Turkey. The armed formations of the irreconcilable Syrian opposition are represented by the forces of the “Syrian Free Army” (FSA has, according to various estimates, from 3 thousand to 100 thousand fighters; consists mainly of Sunnis who deserted from the Syrian army after the outbreak of unrest; constantly replenished with jihadists from Lebanon , Iraq, Tunisia, which the authorities of these countries have repeatedly recognized officially), radical Islamists from the Jabhat al-Nusra movement (about 5 thousand trained and well-armed fighters) and detachments of disparate jihadist groups.
A. Fedorchenko also holds an opinion about the religious factor in inciting events in Syria. He divides Islamist movements outside Syria into three groups: the Muslim Brotherhood, Salafis and Jihadists. With all the ideological and organizational differences among them, in this case it is worth highlighting the jihadists - supporters of violence and opponents of any elements of electoral democracy and pluralism. They form the basis of Jabhat al-Nusra and smaller jihadist groups opposing the army and security forces of the Syrian Arab Republic. Growing numbers of jihadist groups, consisting of fighters arriving in Syria from other Arab countries, Turkey and even Europe, are increasingly emerging as a separate, uncontrollable force.
It should be recognized that, to a certain extent, the Syrian regime itself contributed to the formation of radical Islamist movements in the country - for many years it provided shelter to various kinds of extremist and terrorist organizations. In exchange for shelter, the Islamists did not bother local authorities, operating outside of Syria, including against American troops in Iraq and anti-Syrian politicians in Lebanon, participated in operations against Israel. There is a direct analogy here with the relationship between the United States and radical Islamists, especially since with the beginning of the “Arab revolution” the jihadists turned their weapons against the Assad regime.
It is noteworthy that the United States and NATO are interested in bringing the military activity of the opposition into a controlled channel and minimizing the influence of Islamist radicals in the process of achieving a power superiority for the rebels. Washington fears an Islamist danger if the vertical of power in Syria falls. The Islamist ring can close into a single whole.
Increasing external support for opposition forces will upset the balance of power in the Syrian conflict and lead to the elimination of the current Syrian leadership. There is reason to assume that after the fall of the ruling Syrian regime, the civil war will continue and spread to neighboring Arab countries. Alawites, Shiites, Christians, Kurds may well launch a large-scale guerrilla war, even more fierce than it was in Iraq.
For the United States, Syria will obviously become a kind of testing ground where the Americans will be able to practice their new strategic goal: to support and promote to power in the Middle East moderate Islamists who are ready to establish allied relations with this country.
Currently, the US and EU provide the armed opposition with means of communication, as well as food and medicine, but do not yet intend to supply weapons. The restraint of Western countries in this matter increased after one of the main Islamist armed groups operating in Syria, Jabhat al-Nusra, declared an oath of allegiance to the leader of the international terrorist network Al-Qaeda in April 2013.
And yet, the United States and its allies are not abandoning plans to carry out an armed intervention with the forces of a united coalition in order to establish control over the chemical weapons depots of the Syrian army. To coordinate joint actions in this direction, several international meetings have already taken place - with the participation of the USA, Great Britain, Canada, France, Jordan, the Czech Republic, Qatar and Israel.
Washington has stepped up its efforts to strengthen the international blockade of Syria. Jordan has actually moved away from its previously not very strong position of neutrality in relation to the Syrian crisis; under American pressure, Algeria is moving away from unconditional support for Damascus. Economic sanctions against Syria are being tightened. On April 19, the EU imposed an embargo on the supply of petroleum products from Syria, and American sanctions against Syrian officials extended to large businessmen from this country or those of Syrian origin.
Ankara's position on the Syrian issue is quite contradictory. On the one hand, the Turkish leadership sees the fragmentation of the Syrian opposition. Even if Turkish troops forcefully seize some part of Syrian territory, the opposition is not able to create a powerful springboard there for movement towards Damascus.
On the other hand, Turkish society, which is now split into “Kemalists” and Islamists, overwhelmingly favors strengthening relations with the Russian Federation, which, due to disagreements on the Syrian issue, is experiencing a period of cooling. That is why the position of the Russian Federation serves as the strongest deterrent to Turkey’s implementation of a military scenario in the Syrian Arab Republic following the example of Iraq or Libya.
In addition, Ankara takes into account the importance of developing trade and economic cooperation with Iran. In particular, the Turks receive significant financial resources from banking operations in the interests of Iran, the transit of Turkmen natural gas flowing through Iranian territory, and, in the future, the transit of hydrocarbon raw materials. Ankara and Tehran are seriously brought together by the Kurdish problem, reluctance to allow external players into the region and anti-Israeli rhetoric. Both states are actively involved in Syrian affairs and try to avoid a direct clash of national interests here.
Taking into account the above, Ankara is interested in Tehran’s limited involvement in resolving the Syrian crisis through the creation of a special tripartite commission consisting of Iran, Turkey and Russia or Iran, Turkey and Egypt (there is another format consisting of Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia).
Russian researcher V. Evseev notes that there are currently no countries within NATO that would consider it necessary to launch a military operation against the Syrian Arab Republic. Even France does not yet see the need for this. But this does not exclude its implementation by a group of NATO member states or the provision of support, primarily informational, to Turkey’s actions if it launches a military operation on its own.
It is quite possible that the negative example of Libya became a serious lesson for the United States. And, despite its involvement in Syrian affairs, Washington is aware of its own unpreparedness for armed intervention.
Newly elected President Barack Obama is opposed to such a military operation. As a result, the American administration will refrain from direct involvement in the Syrian conflict.
The United States still maintains troops in Iraq and is preparing for a significant reduction in their number in Afghanistan. These troops could be used in Syria, but such a need would be extremely difficult to justify to the Americans, especially in the face of ongoing economic depression.
Syria is not the main foreign policy enemy of the United States. China acts in this capacity at the global level, and Iran at the regional level. It is against them that the main military resources are concentrated. Their diversion, for example, into a protracted war with Syria (most likely it will follow the Iraqi scenario), will not be supported by the Arabian monarchies. On the other hand, for the United States, there is a “red line” regarding Syria, determined by the safety of the chemical weapons stockpiles there. In the event of the theft of its samples or the seizure of the corresponding arsenal by the radical opposition, the Americans will be forced to immediately intervene.
5.Conclusion
Despite attempts to identify the various sides of the Syrian conflict, the situation in Syria remains unclear. Most likely, in the next six months, President Bashar al-Assad will retain power, but will not be able to control the territory of the entire country. The armed opposition will continue to try to unite and establish control over one of the major Syrian cities (Aleppo is primarily claiming this role). If this succeeds, the opposition will form its own executive bodies, which will hasten to recognize the “external sponsors.”
The forecast for the second half of 2013 is more complex. Apparently, this period will be decisive for President Bashar al-Assad, and time may begin to work for the current government. Almost half of the country's population, including numerous national and religious minorities, see no other alternative to the current government and are afraid of the Muslim Brotherhood and Islamic extremists. All this, given the support from Russia and Iran, gives President Bashar al-Assad an opportunity that he will definitely take advantage of.
While it is difficult to say exactly how the war in Syria will end - there are signs of a gradual improvement in the situation - the army continues to successfully stop militant groups, and has acquired very serious modern experience in conducting the most complex combat operations. However, there are signs of further deterioration of the situation - both in terms of combat operations, but most importantly - a sharp deterioration in the living conditions and activities of the Syrians. One way or another, regardless of the outcome of this war, Syria will be set back in its development for decades. The changes in the organizational structure of the Syrian security forces are too microscopic to significantly improve the situation. The transfer of the war to the area of confessional confrontation is, perhaps, the most important danger of the future stages of this war. Then Syria has virtually no chance of maintaining its statehood and integrity. Only one thing can be said for sure: the conflict will be protracted, and its development will be fundamentally different from the Libyan or Iraqi scenario.
The conflict in Syria, which can easily be called a civil war, has been going on for the fifth year, involving more and more countries. Along with the Middle Eastern states, many Western countries are drawn into the confrontation in the Arab Republic: the USA, Canada, France, and Great Britain. At the end of September 2015, Russia responded to requests from the Syrian government to provide support in the fight against the radical group “Islamic State” - without defeating the terrorists, resolving the bloody conflict in Syria is not possible. RT invites readers to remember the main events of the Syrian crisis in photographs.
- Reuters
To understand the origins of the conflict in the Syrian Arab Republic, it is necessary to recall the events that preceded it in the Middle East. In the winter of 2010, a wave of protests swept across the Arab world, some of them leading to coups d'état. Governments were forcibly removed in Libya, Tunisia and other countries in the region.
Photo: Reuters. Anti-government protesters in Yemen, 2010
In April 2011, in the Syrian cities of Damascus and Aleppo, clashes occurred between protesters and police, killing people. Already in the summer, Sunnis who deserted from the army created the Free Syrian Army (FSA). They demanded the resignation of the government and the resignation of the president of the SAR. Thus began a long-term bloody conflict that claimed the lives of thousands of people.
Photo: Reuters. Protest in the Syrian city of Nawa, April 2011
The West almost immediately supported the Syrian opposition and introduced a number of sanctions against the country's leadership. In the fall of 2011, the Syrian National Council was created in Turkey from political emigrants. In the winter of 2012, the United States recognized the National Opposition Coalition as a legitimate representative of the Syrian population. Meanwhile fighting were gaining momentum.
Photo: Reuters.US Senator John McCaingreeting Syrian refugees in a camp on the Syrian-Turkish border, 2012
In 2013, chemical weapons were used in Syria, killing about 1.2 thousand people. An investigation carried out by the UN mission could only confirm the fact of a chemical attack, but to this day there is no reliable information about which side of the conflict used the nerve gas sarin.
Photo: Reuters. A boy who survived a chemical attack outside Damascus, August 2013
In September 2013, following a meeting between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State John Kerry, an agreement was reached on the destruction of all chemical weapons in Syria. The last batch of prohibited weapons was exported on June 23, 2014.
Photo: Reuters. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US State Department head John Kerry before the start of negotiations on the situation in Syria, August 2013
Militants of the radical Islamic State group, formed from the Iraqi and Syrian wings of al-Qaeda, entered the conflict on the side of anti-government forces in 2013. The very next year, together with the Syrian territories controlled by militants, IS extended its influence to a region larger in area than Great Britain.
Photo: Reuters.An Islamic State militant uses a loudspeaker to announce to residents of the Syrian town of Tabqa that a local military base has been captured by IS forces, August 2014.
In the fall of 2014, the United States announced the creation of an international anti-terrorist coalition, which began striking militant positions. However, according to experts, the actions of the forces led by Washington did not lead to any significant successes. Moreover, the coalition has been repeatedly accused of killing civilians and not terrorists as a result of airstrikes.
Photo: Reuters. Children among the ruins of a school in Raqqa, destroyed by a US-led coalition airstrike, 2014.
Russia, in turn, has repeatedly emphasized that to successfully combat terrorism, cooperation between the countries of the region is necessary. Later, the Russian Foreign Ministry officially announced that Russia, Syria, Iraq and Iran have created a coordination center in Baghdad to combat the Islamic State.
Photo: Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation. A plane of the Russian Aerospace Forces at an air base in Syria, 2015
Currently, both Russia and the West agree that without defeating the Islamic State, it is impossible to resolve the conflict in Syria. In this regard, in September 2015, Moscow announced the start of an operation of the Russian Aerospace Forces against Islamists.
Photo: Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation. Aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces at an air base in Syria, 2015
Since September 30, the date of the start of the Russian Aerospace Forces operation, Russian aviation has carried out more than a hundred combat sorties against IS targets. Su-34, Su-24M and Su-25SM aircraft destroyed dozens of camps, warehouses and bases of Islamic State militants.
Photo: RIA Novosti. Russian Aerospace Forces aircraft on a combat mission in Syria, 2015
The Russian Ministry of Defense yesterday announced the intensification of combat sorties by Russian aviation due to a significant increase in the number of ground targets identified by air and space reconnaissance throughout Syria. The official representative of the department, Major General Igor Konashenkov, spoke about this.
Photo: RIA Novosti. Aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces on a combat mission in Syria, 2015
The Russian base in Syria is fully provided with material and technical equipment from the Russian Federation, so the military personnel currently in the Arab Republic have everything they need, the Ministry of Defense noted. A battalion tactical group is involved to guard and defend the base Marine Corps with means of amplification. Field food stations and a bakery were organized on site.
Photo: RIA Novosti. Russian military personnel at a base in Syria, 2015
According to the UN, more than 240 thousand people have been killed in Syria since the beginning of the conflict. 4 million Syrian citizens became refugees, and another 7.6 million received the status of displaced persons. As a result, more than 12 million people are currently in need of humanitarian assistance.
The conflict in Syria has been going on for more than four years and is accompanied by mass casualties. Events constantly fall into the spotlight of the world media. There are a huge number of parties involved in the war. Many countries are involved in a crisis.
The conflict in Syria: where did it all start?
The war in the Middle East is still going on. Around the beginning of the conflict in Syria. The reasons are different for each of the current parties. But it all started with anti-government protests. The Baath Party has ruled Syria for more than 70 years. In recent years, Bashar al-Assad has been president. The opposition, inspired in other countries, begins to radically criticize the government and calls on its supporters to take to the streets. In the spring the protests escalated sharply. There are violent clashes between protesters and the police and army. There are constant reports of deaths. A number of northern provinces are practically not controlled by the government. Bashar al-Assad declares that he is ready to seek a compromise and dissolves the cabinet of ministers. But it was already too late.
Social media played an important role. Through Facebook and Twitter, the opposition coordinated its actions and called on people to take actions of disobedience. By the summer, the conflict in Syria is gaining new momentum. Opponents of the government create armed groups, the West supports them and threatens Assad with sanctions if force is used.
Syria: history of the conflict
The clashes take on the character of full-scale hostilities. Rebels unite in A few months after the start of the protests, radical Islamists are actively joining the opposition. Midway through the year, a suicide bomber kills several senior government officials.
In the fall, fighting practically does not stop. The EU and the US actively support the rebels and provide them with technical and material assistance. A number of Western allies are introducing sanctions against Syria. Government troops managed to recapture a number of cities and provide reliable protection for Damascus. The rebels announce plans to attack Aleppo, the second most populous city after the capital. They make several unsuccessful assaults.
International presence
The conflict in Syria is beginning to attract more and more external players. Türkiye officially begins to support the opposition. In the summer of 2012, immediately after announcing their entry into the war, government troops shot down a Turkish plane and opened fire on other targets. Later, artillery hits a column of Turkish vehicles after they cross the border.
Libya and Iran are beginning to support Assad. Armed members of Hezbollah (which can be translated as “Party of Allah”) are arriving in Syria. Together with them, the Syrian army liberates Al-Quseir. In winter, the Assad regime launches a large-scale offensive, which brings significant successes. Against this background, constant terrorist attacks occur in government-controlled cities.
Opposition troops increasingly fit their stereotype in the West. Islamists are joining armed groups. Al-Qaeda is sending a significant contingent to Syria. Cells of this terrorist organization organize training camps.
Relations with Turkey are deteriorating. Several armed clashes occur. The Turkish Parliament allows the use armed forces against Syria, but the war does not start. Some Gulf countries that are allies of the United States provide regular assistance to anti-government forces.
The role of Kurdistan
The conflict in Syria involves many different forces. Kurdistan is a serious player and is often called a "third party." Kurds live in eastern Syria, Iraq and Turkey. Their armed militia is called Peshmerga. This organization was created to protect the territory where ethnic Kurds live. They are loyal to the Assad regime and actively oppose ISIS.
Islamization of the conflict
By 2014, the protracted war was gaining new momentum. The “moderate” opposition plays virtually no role. It is still actively supported by the EU and the US, but in Syria now only the language of weapons is understood. The main fighting is underway. The Jabhat al-Nusra organization controls a significant part of Syria. They are often called terrorists, and information appears in the media that the Islamists are receiving assistance from the United States through the “opposition.”
ISIS is one of the most brutal and largest organizations that has catalyzed the conflict in Syria. The reasons for the success of this organization are still a matter of debate among analysts. The world learned about IS after its militants suddenly captured the large city of Mosul. The Islamists created their own state on the territory under their control. The local population lives strictly according to For example, men are prohibited from cutting their hair. Violations of the rules result in various severe punishments.
One of the important components of IS activities is propaganda. The world community was amazed by a number of videos showing militants executing prisoners. Moreover, the murders occur with sophistication and are filmed by professionals. ISIS is considered an international terrorist organization. A number of NATO countries and Russia are launching attacks on the territories of the Islamic state.
Simple answers to naive questions about Syria
The civil war in Syria has lasted more than two years. But for many it is still a mystery - who is fighting, with whom, why and with whose help. At moments when the conflict escalates, such people begin to get more nervous: it’s offensive to feel like a layman on a topic that everyone around is discussing. Having summarized the most typical questions asked by “world politics dummies,” we tried to give them as much food for thought as possible.
Question No. 1: Why are the Syrians fighting?
The war in Syria is going on on several fronts.
Assad asking FSA The country is over 80% Muslim, the vast majority of them Sunni. But Syria has been ruled for decades by the Alawites (an offshoot of the Shiite branch of Islam), to which the Assad clan belongs. If you were the Sunnis, you would also want to change places! The instability brought to the region by the Arab Spring gave them a sure chance - opponents of the government united into the Free Syrian Army (FSA). Assad's enemies are supported by the Sunni monarchies of the Persian Gulf and Palestinian terrorists from Hamas. Assad - Shiite Iran and Lebanese terrorists from Hezbollah.
Assad against al-Qaeda In addition to the FSA, radical Islamist groups with names that are difficult for unprepared people to understand are fighting against Assad: “Doula Islamiya Iraq and Sham”, “Liwa al-Tawhid”, “Al-Nusra Front”. These are all local al-Qaeda affiliates, or pretend to be.
FSA against al-Qaeda Recently, Assad’s enemies have been fighting among themselves - they cannot decide who needs power in Syria more. It all started because of a small “misunderstanding”: on July 12, radical Islamists killed one of the FSA commanders, Kamal Hamami, his brother, and promised to kill all the other FSA leaders one by one so that they would not lay claim to the part of the country they controlled.
Question No. 2: What the hell do the Americans want in Syria?
Money This is the motive of the lobbyists of the American military-industrial complex in conjunction with the generals of the Ministry of Defense. In 2011, the Pentagon signed contracts worth $100 billion with just five of its main contractors: Lockheed Martin, Boeing, General Dynamics, Raytheon and Northrop Grumman.
Business reciprocates: 76 of the 108 three- and four-star American generals and admirals who retired from 2009-2011 took jobs with Pentagon contractors.
Geopolitics The main supporters of the overthrow of the Assad regime are the Sunni monarchies of the Persian Gulf (primarily the UAE). They are also strategic allies of the United States and the main suppliers of raw materials. The overthrow of Assad is the key to weakening (and in dreams, defeating) their main enemy - Shiite Iran. What won’t you do for your closest ally?
In addition, a superpower like the United States cannot (in its own mind) cede to anyone the role of the main force in the region.
Domestic policy Obama enjoys undermining his Republican rivals. All last years they vilified the regimes of Assad and Ahmadinejad and earned themselves political points by accusing Obama of being soft. And suddenly Obama invites them to vote for the war in Syria, and it turns out that the majority of Republicans are against it - two-faced politicians.
Question No. 3: Why is Russia against the invasion of Syria? What is our interest?
Economy It seems like Syria is one of the main buyers of our weapons. Assad accounts for a tenth of Rosoboronexport's current orders. The only problem is that Syria pays almost nothing for the supplied weapons. The arithmetic is this: we received the last payment in 2006 - a billion dollars. But a year earlier, Russia wrote off a $10 billion debt to Assad under guarantees of concluding new contracts.
Geopolitics Syria is, if not our only, then certainly our closest ally in the Middle East. We even have a semblance of a military base there in Tartus - a 110-meter floating pier (so that a ship can dock and refuel), warehouses on the shore and a barbed wire fence. Losing such a “base” is not scary. But the Kremlin thinks about her last. It is much more important that the fall of the Assad regime will undermine the authority of our diplomacy and deprive Russia of the opportunity to seriously influence the Middle East situation.
Domestic policy Immediately after the presidential elections in 2012, the Levada Center conducted a survey, and it turned out that from Putin’s third term, 67% of Russians expect the country’s foreign policy position to be strengthened and only 45% hope for an improvement in the economic situation. Vladimir Putin probably understands that his position on Syria will be able to compensate for the negativity with which our fellow citizens for the most part perceived the “surrender” of Libya.
Question No. 4: Who should decent people sympathize with in this war?
It is the firm belief of RR that decent people should sympathize with those who want an end to the war and the violence it generates. But so far none of the direct parties to the conflict has met this requirement.
The armed Syrian opposition, of course, will not calm down until it completes the job (it hopes, at a minimum, for arms supplies from abroad, and ideally for intervention by the United States and its allies). Bashar al-Assad is also interested in complete and unconditional victory over his enemies (especially since his army is now advancing).
The methods by which both sides are waging the war also cause rejection: many of the combatants from both one and the other camp would clearly have to go to trial.
Question No. 5: Should we worry about the war in Syria at all?
To answer this question, you will have to take a short test. We boiled it down to one question: “What do you think about most often in your free moments from work and fussing with children?”
Possible answers:
A) about the geopolitical role of Russia in modern world, the dangers of US hegemony and the role of the UN in maintaining stability;
B) that in a very distant and incomprehensible country more than a hundred thousand people have already died, about a third of them are civilians: women, children, old people;
C) about how much rent and food prices will rise next month, when Spartak will become the champion again and where to go for the New Year.
If you chose A, then it is not clear why you even read this article to the end; in theory, you already know who is right, who is wrong and how it will end.
Choosing option B implies that you are a humanitarian. True, an ordinary Russian citizen can hardly somehow influence what is happening in Syria, and perhaps he should think more about local tragedies in which he can intervene.
Well, if option B is chosen, then there is nothing to worry about. Syria does not supply us with sugar, pork, or high-tech equipment (trade turnover with it is 0.14% of all Russian foreign trade). And probably even Assad’s army is unable to help Spartak become champions again. You can definitely relax here.
“If you see Putin, you’ll kiss him”
A RR correspondent called ordinary residents of Damascus to find out how they lived in anticipation of an American strike.
Abu Khaled, about fifty years old, manager at a hotel snack bar
People go and buy sandwiches like before. A month ago at different points Shells were falling on Damascus. There were few people in the center. It's a thing of the past now. There was a bit of fear during the peak of talk of an American strike. Now there is a feeling that there will be no blow.
This is all, of course, thanks to Putin. I love him. You'll see - a kiss. If he runs in our elections, he has already won. In fact, we are very grateful to him. We really hope that he will see it through to the end. If you pass by the Kremlin, stop by and say that we hope for it.
Our hotel is filled with refugees.
During the first period of the crisis, foreigners disappear. Then refugees start arriving: Homs, Homs, Homs. Then less from Homs - the fighting moved to the suburbs
Damascus. Those who check into a hotel immediately start looking for an apartment. Found within a few days. And their place in the hotel is taken by people from areas where the fighting has just begun.
Abu Mohammed, blacksmith, forty-five years old, lives in the Rokne Eddin area
Nowadays the work of a blacksmith is considered dangerous. The authorities think: if you are a blacksmith, you can participate in the production of explosives.
Thank God, I recently started working again and took an order in the Abbasein region. Fifty meters to the front line. I make bars on windows for ordinary people. So what to do? You have to live somehow. I am well aware that both the road there and being there are dangerous. But somehow you need to feed your family.
See also:
Bashar al-Assad's chemical weapons and other dubious reasons for starting a war
Will the US start a new war in the Middle East?
A new cooling has begun in relations between Russia and the United States
How a Russian woman became a Syrian hero
I like asking questions -
What the hell do the Americans want there?
And the next one-
What is our interest?
But one could also ask, what the hell do we need there?
Although even without the article it is clear that the same devils are dragging us and the Americans to Syria.
And the last thing I wanted to say to the authors:
If you see Putin, kiss him on the ass...
Dear editors, please fix the registration on your website, it’s so buggy that I just don’t want to deal with you, although you seem to have good journalists. Are you making fun of people or what? I wrote you a letter about this, because I couldn’t register for a long time, various errors kept coming out: either “the activation code is incorrect” (even though I followed YOUR link), or “The password is incorrect” (although it was CORRECT, because when I clicked button "Send password" I was sent the same, initially CORRECT password. You seem to be positioning yourself as a decent media outlet, and even with such a pretentious name - and your website is so crookedly made. Who is your programmer, where did you find it ? From where are his hands growing? You are preoccupied with the problems of distant Syria - wouldn’t it be better for you to first solve YOUR OWN problems, on your own website, UNDER YOUR NOSE? Aren’t you ashamed at all?? ((((
“Simple answers to naive questions about Syria!” - in your case - “Simplicity is worse than theft.” You turned out to be too much of a popular picture.
I started reading the article, but I just had to skim it.
Even if there is such a structure for SSA, but not like for header lines. In reality, in combat conditions, it does not enjoy much support, existing more in the media space. The same “Al-Nusra Front” is a more real structure.
The “Free Syrian Army” is a “creature”, a “brand” of Western countries and the Gulf Monarchies, created to legalize financial flows and political support in the “eyes of the general public”. For this “public” the word “Freedom” is like a sweet candy. And in general, how do we understand “Free Army”, what is this army free from? No, perhaps Hitler had better “creatives”, but we had Vlasovites, i.e. R.O.A. “Russian Liberation Army”, but not like the Free Army.
